For the first time since October 2014, the median sales price for homes in Ada County dropped year-over-year. In November, the median sales price of homes sold was $525,000 — 2.5% lower than in November 2021 and 6.5% less than in October 2022.
We have been talking for months now about how home prices are driven by supply versus demand. When prices were skyrocketing in the Treasure Valley area, it was mostly due to the fact that there was such little inventory compared to the demand. Homes for sale were hard to come by at a time when buyers were flocking to our area, increasing the demand. Now higher mortgage interest rates, combined with the swift home price appreciation in the last several years, have decreased purchase power for buyers and lessened demand. As a result, some buyers have made budget adjustments and others have pressed pause on their home search.
Consequently, fewer buyers equated to fewer home sales for the county. There were 548 home sales in November, 39.0% less than a year ago. Of those, 380 were existing/resale homes, down 44.9% from November 2021, and 168 were new construction homes, down 19.2% from last year.
The chart below shows activity for single-family homes with or without acreage, between January 2017 and November 2022. Sales volume is impacted by several factors, one of which is mortgage interest rates as the majority of buyers finance their home purchase. The rapid increase of mortgage interest rates resulted in lower sales throughout 2022.
To attract the buyers who remain in the market, sellers are adjusting prices accordingly or offering buyer incentives like closing cost credits to buy down the interest rate. Lenders are also adapting and offering new programs to help buyers combat higher interest rates.
Those who are able to buy in today’s market have more options to choose from and more time to shop for a home than they would have a year or even six months ago. There were 1,843 homes available for purchase in Ada County in November, 131.5% more than in November 2021. Homes that closed in November spent an average of 47 days on the market before going under contract, compared to 29 days this time a year ago.
So, what’s next? Mortgage interest rates have declined in recent weeks, from the most recent high average of 7.08% on November 10, 2022, to 6.33% on December 8, 2022, according to Freddie Mac, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. While uncertainty remains around what mortgage interest rates will do — especially in response to any future Fed rate adjustments — real estate professionals are hopeful rates will continue to decline or at least stabilize in 2023.
In fact, Realtor.com said in their 2023 housing forecast that “with mortgage rates continuing to climb as the Fed navigates the economy to a soft-ish landing, a moderation in home price growth will not be enough for the housing market to be a buyer’s bonanza. Instead, home shoppers will enjoy advantages such as a growing number of homes for sale, but costs will remain high, challenging affordability at a time when overall budgets continue to be squeezed. If home shoppers and sellers have unrealistic expectations, they could find themselves in a stale-mate in the year ahead. The 2023 housing market could become a “nobody’s-market,” not friendly to buyers nor to sellers.”
For buyers in 2023, there will be some things to look forward to. There will be more homes for sale, homes will likely take longer to sell, and buyers will not face the extreme competition that was commonplace over the past few years. However, affordability challenges prevent 2023 from being a major buyer’s market, especially for first-time homebuyers who already faced significant obstacles.
For sellers, success can be found in this market as long as sellers approach with a home sale with reasonable expectations that are very different from what was the norm less than a year ago.
One thing is for certain, whether you are buying or selling, it is more important than ever to work with a REALTOR who knows and understands the real estate market. You want to work with someone who does real estate full time, is knowledgeable about the shifting market, and can analyze trending data to help you be successful. Luckily for you, that is my specialty! Reach out to me when you are ready to make a move.
This market report is provided by Boise Regional Realtors.
